V-Lab
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
17.11%
decreased by 1.10%
1 Week
17.21%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Month
17.53%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 24 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0874 | 7.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1205 | 9.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8516 | 63.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0351 | 2.98*** |
| γ2 | -0.0699 | -3.72*** |
| γ3 | 0.0633 | 4.26*** |
| γ4 | -0.0386 | -3.87*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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