V-Lab
iShares MSCI ACWI ETF GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 6th, 2026
1 Day
13.18%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Week
13.38%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
14.05%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 09:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2000 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0246 | 17.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0099 | 3.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8879 | 398.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1637 | 23.20*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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