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V-Lab

Meiko Trans Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

17.80%

increased by 0.02%

1 Week

19.65%

increased by 1.87%

1 Month

22.67%

increased by 4.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Meiko Trans Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4639
5.16***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1424
3.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7258
12.69***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2959
-2.97***
γ20.2230
1.52
γ30.2257
2.18**
γ4-0.3062
-2.82***
γ50.2387
2.45**
γ6-0.1444
-1.86*
γ70.1639
2.46**
γ8-0.1542
-3.10***

Persistence:

0.868

Half-life:

5 days