V-Lab
Meiko Trans Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
146.66%
increased by 2.10%
1 Week
159.92%
increased by 15.36%
1 Month
198.31%
increased by 53.75%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 405.7557 | 3.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0980 | 40.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9742 | 121.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0064 | 3,021.75*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
26 days
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