V-Lab
Meiko Trans Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
17.56%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
18.34%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
21.02%
increased by 3.31%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 72% more than negative returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0648 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0932 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9188 | 213.03*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0391 | -3.96*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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