V-Lab
Ever Ohms Technology Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
100.80%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
101.33%
increased by 0.33%
1 Month
103.32%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 02:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 73.3256 | 6.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1596 | 36.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9936 | 1,021.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5899 | 27.21*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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