Para Light Electronics Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
73.93%
decreased by 5.59%
1 Week
70.36%
decreased by 9.16%
1 Month
63.65%
decreased by 15.87%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1254 | 25.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6784 | 59.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0092 | 1.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.9024 | 0.91 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6882 | 0.84 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.808
Half-life:
3 days
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