V-Lab
Para Light Electronics Co GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
128.01%
increased by 17.39%
1 Week
126.54%
increased by 15.92%
1 Month
121.07%
increased by 10.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 46 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 46 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.79 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.3642 | 3.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1019 | 52.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 212.22*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7858 | 41.25*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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