Para Light Electronics Co Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
87.43%
decreased by 5.62%
1 Week
83.35%
decreased by 9.70%
1 Month
70.88%
decreased by 22.17%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 3, 2003 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1769 | 13.19*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1098 | 8.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8315 | 39.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0007 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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