V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
102.89%
increased by 8.74%
1 Week
98.05%
increased by 3.90%
1 Month
90.16%
decreased by 3.99%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 91 | |
| αARCH | 0.1154 | 3.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7466 | 14.79*** |
| γleverage | -0.0346 | -0.50 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 1.7409 | 1.68* |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.8681 | 3.65*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.845
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 91 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1154 | 3.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7466 | 14.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0346 | -0.50 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.7409 | 1.68* |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8681 | 3.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.845
Half-life:
4 days
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