V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
50.43%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
56.61%
increased by 5.95%
1 Month
62.32%
increased by 11.66%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4827 | 2.74*** |
| αARCH | 0.2235 | 4.74*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5141 | 5.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 6.2733 | 1.71* |
| γ2 | -10.1225 | -1.64 |
| γ3 | 2.5476 | 0.54 |
| γ4 | 6.7841 | 2.00** |
| γ5 | -10.0553 | -4.70*** |
| γ6 | 8.1551 | 5.22*** |
| γ7 | -7.4433 | -4.97*** |
| γ8 | 7.2473 | 4.89*** |
| γ9 | -2.9963 | -1.07 |
| γ10 | -4.3441 | -0.82 |
0.738
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4827 | 2.74*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2235 | 4.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5141 | 5.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 6.2733 | 1.71* |
| γ2 | -10.1225 | -1.64 |
| γ3 | 2.5476 | 0.54 |
| γ4 | 6.7841 | 2.00** |
| γ5 | -10.0553 | -4.70*** |
| γ6 | 8.1551 | 5.22*** |
| γ7 | -7.4433 | -4.97*** |
| γ8 | 7.2473 | 4.89*** |
| γ9 | -2.9963 | -1.07 |
| γ10 | -4.3441 | -0.82 |
Persistence:
0.738
Half-life:
2 days
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