V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
44.37%
1 Week
45.36%
1 Month
48.74%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days. The volatility power δ = 1.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2406 | 1.32 |
| αARCH | 0.1318 | 3.16*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8509 | 24.12*** |
| γleverage | -0.3222 | -0.91 |
| δpower | 1.7282 | 3.78*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2406 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1318 | 3.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8509 | 24.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3222 | -0.91 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7282 | 3.78*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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