V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
58.08%
decreased by 8.68%
1 Week
58.58%
decreased by 8.18%
1 Month
60.51%
decreased by 6.25%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 308 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 64.9838 | 6.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1321 | 66.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 3,041.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3867 | 51.19*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
308 days
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