V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
49.60%
1 Week
50.21%
1 Month
52.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 311 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.39 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 64.1466 | 1.59 |
| αARCH | 0.1305 | 16.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 771.08*** |
| νDF | 3.3890 | 12.79*** |
0.998
Persistence311d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 64.1466 | 1.59 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1305 | 16.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 771.08*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3890 | 12.79*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
311 days
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