Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Hevol Services Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

105.01%

increased by 21.98%

1 Week

105.12%

increased by 22.09%

1 Month

105.58%

increased by 22.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Hevol Services Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 12, 2019 to Sep 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 321 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~321 daysv = 3.36 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst66.0928
1.62
αARCH0.1292
16.51***
βGARCH0.9978
808.62***
νDF3.3606
13.22***

0.998

Persistence

321d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

66.0928
1.62
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1292
16.51***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9978
808.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.3606
13.22***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

321 days