V-Lab
Hevol Services Group Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
105.01%
1 Week
105.12%
1 Month
105.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 12, 2019 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 321 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.36 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 66.0928 | 1.62 |
| αARCH | 0.1292 | 16.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 808.62*** |
| νDF | 3.3606 | 13.22*** |
0.998
Persistence321d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 66.0928 | 1.62 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 16.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 808.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.3606 | 13.22*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
321 days
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