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V-Lab

Founder Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

25.01%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

25.56%

increased by 0.30%

1 Month

27.53%

increased by 2.27%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Founder Securities Co Ltd MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 143% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1116
15.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8366
108.73***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0657
-10.60***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

1.0842
0.23
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.7981
0.23
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.915

Half-life:

8 days