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V-Lab

Founder Securities Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

26.90%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

27.23%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

28.32%

increased by 0.81%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Founder Securities Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 26 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3740
7.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0810
5.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8927
46.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0041
2.88***

Persistence:

0.974

Half-life:

26 days