V-Lab
Founder Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
33.48%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
33.83%
decreased by 0.35%
1 Month
35.16%
increased by 0.98%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.6027 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0693 | 65.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9953 | 1,336.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2072 | 55.36*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
149 days
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