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V-Lab

Founder Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

33.48%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

33.83%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Month

35.16%

increased by 0.98%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Founder Securities Co Ltd GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 10, 2011 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 149 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.21 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

14.6027
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0693
65.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
1,336.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2072
55.36***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days