V-Lab
Inner Mongolia North Hauler JSC Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
43.44%
decreased by 2.62%
1 Week
43.69%
decreased by 2.37%
1 Month
44.57%
decreased by 1.49%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.5434 | 4.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0845 | 32.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9859 | 278.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2281 | 12.34*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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