V-Lab
Liaoning Shidai Wanheng Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
87.48%
increased by 10.60%
1 Week
82.89%
increased by 6.01%
1 Month
69.91%
decreased by 6.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2000 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7754 | 6.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1213 | 8.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8054 | 35.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1447 | 4.26*** |
| γ2 | -0.2622 | -4.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.1696 | 4.12*** |
| γ4 | -0.0880 | -2.31** |
| γ5 | 0.0672 | 1.97** |
| γ6 | -0.0407 | -1.72* |
0.927
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7754 | 6.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1213 | 8.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8054 | 35.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1447 | 4.26*** |
| γ2 | -0.2622 | -4.98*** |
| γ3 | 0.1696 | 4.12*** |
| γ4 | -0.0880 | -2.31** |
| γ5 | 0.0672 | 1.97** |
| γ6 | -0.0407 | -1.72* |
Persistence:
0.927
Half-life:
9 days
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