V-Lab
Liaoning Shidai Wanheng Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
39.14%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Week
39.57%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
40.66%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2000 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7751 | 6.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1192 | 8.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8099 | 37.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1455 | 4.17*** |
| γ2 | -0.2627 | -4.86*** |
| γ3 | 0.1680 | 3.97*** |
| γ4 | -0.0845 | -2.17** |
| γ5 | 0.0609 | 1.77* |
| γ6 | -0.0338 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
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