V-Lab
Liaoning Shidai Wanheng Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
51.70%
decreased by 2.48%
1 Week
50.58%
decreased by 3.60%
1 Month
47.55%
decreased by 6.63%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2000 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 10 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7764 | 6.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1190 | 8.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8109 | 37.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.1467 | 4.15*** |
| γ2 | -0.2642 | -4.82*** |
| γ3 | 0.1681 | 3.91*** |
| γ4 | -0.0839 | -2.13** |
| γ5 | 0.0605 | 1.74* |
| γ6 | -0.0335 | -1.42 |
Persistence:
0.930
Half-life:
10 days
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