V-Lab
Liaoning Shidai Wanheng Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
66.51%
increased by 13.25%
1 Week
65.93%
increased by 12.67%
1 Month
63.88%
increased by 10.62%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:17 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 28, 2000 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-lifev = 4.65 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 10.4473 | 1.42 |
| αARCH | 0.1051 | 7.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9781 | 63.26*** |
| νDF | 4.6475 | 2.79*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4473 | 1.42 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1051 | 7.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9781 | 63.26*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6475 | 2.79*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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