V-Lab
Daito Chemix Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.33%
decreased by 2.25%
1 Week
38.22%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
40.46%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8125 | 5.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.1526 | 7.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6326 | 12.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1308 | -1.64 |
| γ2 | 0.0012 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.4182 | 5.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.5447 | -6.70*** |
| γ5 | 0.4561 | 4.77*** |
| γ6 | -0.3050 | -2.90*** |
| γ7 | 0.1588 | 1.49 |
| γ8 | -0.1621 | -1.43 |
| γ9 | 0.1822 | 1.80* |
| γ10 | -0.0808 | -1.16 |
0.785
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8125 | 5.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1526 | 7.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6326 | 12.58*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1308 | -1.64 |
| γ2 | 0.0012 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | 0.4182 | 5.48*** |
| γ4 | -0.5447 | -6.70*** |
| γ5 | 0.4561 | 4.77*** |
| γ6 | -0.3050 | -2.90*** |
| γ7 | 0.1588 | 1.49 |
| γ8 | -0.1621 | -1.43 |
| γ9 | 0.1822 | 1.80* |
| γ10 | -0.0808 | -1.16 |
Persistence:
0.785
Half-life:
3 days
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