V-Lab
Daito Chemix Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
52.97%
decreased by 1.86%
1 Week
56.58%
increased by 1.75%
1 Month
59.77%
increased by 4.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1667 | 24.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5125 | 18.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0216 | -1.95* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1883 | 0.90 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0972 | 1.02 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8827 | 7.55*** |
Persistence:
0.668
Half-life:
2 days
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