V-Lab
Daito Chemix Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
49.24%
decreased by 1.46%
1 Week
53.48%
increased by 2.78%
1 Month
54.11%
increased by 3.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 31, 1996 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 2-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.1670 | 5.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5133 | 6.14*** |
| γleverage | -0.0222 | -0.54 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.1921 | 1.53 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0971 | 1.95* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8819 | 14.22*** |
0.669
Persistence2d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1670 | 5.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5133 | 6.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0222 | -0.54 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.1921 | 1.53 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0971 | 1.95* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8819 | 14.22*** |
Persistence:
0.669
Half-life:
2 days
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