V-Lab
GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
29.98%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
29.47%
decreased by 1.84%
1 Month
28.79%
decreased by 2.52%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0247 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9827 | 0.32 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0247 | -0.02 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2246 | 0.02 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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