GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc APARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
219.83%
1 Week
221.75%
1 Month
229.33%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 12213290 trading days (~48465.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.46 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0593 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9356 | 20.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4423 | 1.95* |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8342 | 4.96*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
12213290 days
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