GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
181.08%
increased by 4.95%
1 Week
177.45%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
165.86%
decreased by 10.27%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:46 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 13, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 86.35 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 66.0052 | 8.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0589 | 1.07 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9580 | 24.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 86.3473 | 0.03 |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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