V-Lab
Contemporary Amperex Tech Co MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
36.32%
increased by 1.04%
1 Week
36.02%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
36.27%
increased by 0.99%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 20, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Stationarity Enforced
Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0196 | 0.26 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9852 | 356.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0196 | -0.38 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.6147 | 0.22 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2328 | 0.31 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
138 days
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