V-Lab
Qingdao Paguld Intelligent Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.04%
decreased by 5.40%
1 Week
45.19%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
49.21%
increased by 3.77%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0478 | 7.52*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3013 | 2.57** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3914 | 3.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0118 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.693
Half-life:
2 days
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