V-Lab
Qingdao Paguld Intelligent GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.61%
decreased by 5.20%
1 Week
45.61%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
49.51%
increased by 3.70%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1843 | 12.73*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2761 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4014 | 14.36*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0273 | 0.43 |
Persistence:
0.691
Half-life:
2 days
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