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V-Lab

Qingdao Paguld Intelligent GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

40.61%

decreased by 6.96%

1 Week

43.15%

decreased by 4.42%

1 Month

50.08%

increased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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graph of Qingdao Paguld Intelligent GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 14, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

16.7982
4.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1938
16.71***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9570
94.40***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8585
7.09***

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days