V-Lab
Qingdao Paguld Intelligent GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
40.61%
decreased by 6.96%
1 Week
43.15%
decreased by 4.42%
1 Month
50.08%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 07:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 14, 2023 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.86 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 16.7982 | 4.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1938 | 16.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9570 | 94.40*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8585 | 7.09*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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