Shanghai Urban Architecture Design Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
75.61%
increased by 4.55%
1 Week
72.92%
increased by 1.86%
1 Month
71.63%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3978 | 4.00*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2746 | 3.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2153 | 2.00** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 10.3782 | 3.10*** |
| γ2 | -16.1016 | -3.12*** |
| γ3 | 10.5291 | 2.62*** |
| γ4 | -8.5037 | -1.73* |
| γ5 | 6.2278 | 1.38 |
| γ6 | -3.3031 | -0.93 |
| γ7 | -0.7070 | -0.17 |
| γ8 | 4.4397 | 1.34 |
| γ9 | -4.8001 | -2.43** |
Persistence:
0.490
Half-life:
1 days
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