V-Lab
Shanghai Urban Architecture Design Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
70.30%
increased by 0.84%
1 Week
79.49%
increased by 10.03%
1 Month
82.99%
increased by 13.53%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2021 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3256 | 4.15*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2645 | 3.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1785 | 1.58 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 9.8236 | 3.24*** |
| γ2 | -15.3080 | -3.28*** |
| γ3 | 10.1126 | 2.78*** |
| γ4 | -8.0379 | -1.75* |
| γ5 | 5.6010 | 1.23 |
| γ6 | -2.9049 | -0.78 |
| γ7 | -0.6447 | -0.15 |
| γ8 | 4.6273 | 1.22 |
| γ9 | -5.4068 | -2.60*** |
Persistence:
0.443
Half-life:
1 days
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