Shanghai Urban Architecture Design Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
87.98%
increased by 12.95%
1 Week
80.24%
increased by 5.21%
1 Month
63.05%
decreased by 11.98%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:22 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 20, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 7.5857 | 4.14*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1568 | 11.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8733 | 29.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7425 | 10.44*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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