V-Lab
Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.10%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
13.03%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
14.74%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1339 | 3.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1437 | 8.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7428 | 24.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0233 | 0.39 |
| γ2 | -0.0369 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | -0.0125 | -0.26 |
| γ4 | 0.0776 | 1.83* |
| γ5 | -0.1730 | -3.79*** |
| γ6 | 0.2218 | 4.55*** |
| γ7 | -0.1467 | -2.61*** |
| γ8 | 0.1550 | 2.02** |
| γ9 | -0.2306 | -2.55** |
| γ10 | 0.1716 | 2.20** |
Persistence:
0.887
Half-life:
6 days
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