Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.27%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
13.17%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
14.82%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1993 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1339 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1444 | 8.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7402 | 24.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0244 | 0.41 |
| γ2 | -0.0375 | -0.48 |
| γ3 | -0.0154 | -0.32 |
| γ4 | 0.0845 | 1.98** |
| γ5 | -0.1831 | -4.01*** |
| γ6 | 0.2325 | 4.78*** |
| γ7 | -0.1580 | -2.76*** |
| γ8 | 0.1670 | 2.13** |
| γ9 | -0.2358 | -2.54** |
| γ10 | 0.1690 | 2.11** |
Persistence:
0.885
Half-life:
6 days
Other Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities