Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.74%
decreased by 0.39%
1 Week
13.16%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
14.71%
increased by 1.58%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1993 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 442 trading days (~1.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.5397 | 9.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0939 | 127.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 6,656.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2888 | 198.62*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
442 days
Other Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities