Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
15.61%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
17.09%
increased by 1.32%
1 Month
22.33%
increased by 6.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1993 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 18% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.87 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0678 | 19.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1334 | 26.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8666 | 182.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0937 | 4.95*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8745 | 23.93*** |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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