Kerry Tj Logistics Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.58%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
13.54%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
15.27%
increased by 2.44%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:16 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 27, 1993 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1677 | 3.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 8.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7388 | 23.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.0349 | 0.59 |
| γ2 | -0.0471 | -0.61 |
| γ3 | -0.0247 | -0.52 |
| γ4 | 0.1050 | 2.48** |
| γ5 | -0.2071 | -4.57*** |
| γ6 | 0.2547 | 5.22*** |
| γ7 | -0.1756 | -2.95*** |
| γ8 | 0.1788 | 2.07** |
| γ9 | -0.2423 | -2.02** |
| γ10 | 0.1701 | 0.99 |
Persistence:
0.883
Half-life:
6 days
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