Sam Yung Trading Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
30.98%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Week
31.91%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
33.40%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 36% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1046 | 24.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7192 | 55.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0378 | 5.22*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0047 | 2.21** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0230 | 5.17*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9767 | 207.99*** |
Persistence:
0.843
Half-life:
4 days
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