Sam Yung Trading Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
25.71%
decreased by 1.42%
1 Week
24.99%
decreased by 2.14%
1 Month
22.73%
decreased by 4.40%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0041 | 7.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0934 | 8.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8595 | 48.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.0032 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 0.0398 | 0.55 |
| γ3 | -0.1572 | -2.64*** |
| γ4 | 0.2434 | 3.96*** |
| γ5 | -0.2254 | -3.93*** |
| γ6 | 0.2095 | 3.91*** |
| γ7 | -0.1917 | -3.46*** |
| γ8 | 0.0930 | 1.71* |
| γ9 | 0.0126 | 0.22 |
| γ10 | -0.0136 | -0.28 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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