Sam Yung Trading Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
34.63%
decreased by 1.57%
1 Week
34.73%
decreased by 1.47%
1 Month
35.12%
decreased by 1.08%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 476 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 14.1700 | 9.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 106.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9985 | 6,746.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.2880 | 78.75*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
476 days
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