How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
ωconst	1.4891	3.16***
αARCH	0.4850	6.64***
βGARCH	0.4451	6.87***

γ₁	11.2189	7.21***
γ₂	-24.2310	-7.86***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
ω const Unconditional variance weight	1.4891	3.16***
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.4850	6.64***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.4451	6.87***

γ₁	11.2189	7.21***
γ₂	-24.2310	-7.86***

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Zhengye Biotechnology Holding Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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