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Zhengye Biotechnology Holding Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

2,689,343.00

increased by 512,962.00

1 Week

2,496,532.60

increased by 320,151.60

1 Month

1,072,409.86

decreased by 1,103,971.14

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 09:46 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Zhengye Biotechnology Holding Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~138 days
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow41
αARCH0.6131
12.82***
βGARCH0.6319
23.99***
γleverage-0.5000
-7.30***
λ₁tau intercept0.0000
0.20
λ₂forecast adj.0.2464
2.98***
λ₃tau persistence0.0647
11.64***

0.995

Persistence

138d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

41
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6131
12.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6319
23.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5000
-7.30***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0000
0.20
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2464
2.98***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0647
11.64***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

138 days