Willis Lease Finance Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
12,450.74
increased by 11,551.27
1 Week
3,221.92
increased by 2,322.45
1 Month
1,236.02
increased by 336.55
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 09:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 18, 1996 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8716 | 4.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1327 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8337 | 45.77*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.0977 | 1.98** |
| γ2 | -0.2770 | -3.89*** |
| γ3 | 0.2309 | 4.40*** |
| γ4 | -0.0494 | -1.06 |
| γ5 | 0.0546 | 1.41 |
| γ6 | -0.1012 | -2.72*** |
| γ7 | -0.1296 | -2.16** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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