V-Lab
Bitgo Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
3,749.05
increased by 131.57
1 Week
3,197.98
decreased by 419.50
1 Month
7,936.64
increased by 4,319.16
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 17, 2026 at 09:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2026 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7217 | 3.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2935 | 4.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6691 | 10.23*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -18.6112 | -2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.963
Half-life:
18 days
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