V-Lab
Bitgo Holdings Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
2,565.65
decreased by 800.05
1 Week
3,525.48
increased by 159.78
1 Month
6,421.08
increased by 3,055.38
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 21, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7282 | 3.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2923 | 4.86*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6700 | 10.31*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -18.3206 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.962
Half-life:
18 days
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