V-Lab
Laundry You PCL Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
7,025.68
increased by 2,187.73
1 Week
4,980.16
increased by 142.21
1 Month
3,409.67
decreased by 1,428.28
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 3, 2025 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9603 | 8.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1944 | 2.08** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3166 | 1.08 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -5.1617 | -2.91*** |
Persistence:
0.511
Half-life:
1 days
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