V-Lab
Vung Tau Real Estate Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
4,180.71
increased by 2,915.74
1 Week
1,961.84
increased by 696.87
1 Month
1,477.92
increased by 212.95
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 27, 2010 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3348 trading days (~13.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7086 | 2.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1675 | 2.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8323 | 13.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.7644 | 0.38 |
| γ2 | -3.9284 | -1.27 |
| γ3 | 6.5541 | 4.03*** |
| γ4 | -8.4712 | -11.44*** |
| γ5 | 9.5216 | 12.22*** |
| γ6 | -5.3255 | -5.26*** |
| γ7 | 0.4705 | 0.34 |
| γ8 | 0.9971 | 0.59 |
| γ9 | -0.6121 | -0.42 |
| γ10 | 0.4992 | 0.40 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3348 days
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