V-Lab
Vien Dong Investment Develop Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
18,403.74
decreased by 2,692.03
1 Week
24,080.21
increased by 2,984.44
1 Month
22,668.10
increased by 1,572.33
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:58 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 2009 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 46209 trading days (~183.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1213 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1446 | 0.01 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8554 | 0.05 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.9769 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 2.7481 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -0.8454 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | -3.6583 | -0.01 |
| γ5 | 4.8275 | 0.42 |
| γ6 | -4.6972 | -0.31 |
| γ7 | 4.8305 | 0.27 |
| γ8 | -2.8732 | -0.33 |
| γ9 | 0.9352 | 1.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
46209 days
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