V-Lab
Vien Dong Investment Develop Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
14,509.54
decreased by 640.00
1 Week
15,736.93
increased by 587.39
1 Month
12,394.37
decreased by 2,755.17
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 22, 2009 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0528 | 1.32 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0392 | 7.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9562 | 407.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0092 | 0.38 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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