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Vien Dong Investment Develop Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

14,509.54

decreased by 640.00

1 Week

15,736.93

increased by 587.39

1 Month

12,394.37

decreased by 2,755.17

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 10:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vien Dong Investment Develop ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 22, 2009 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0528
1.32
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0392
7.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9562
407.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0092
0.38

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days