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V-Lab

Vestum Ab (Publ) Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

1,252.23

increased by 24.16

1 Week

1,305.02

increased by 76.95

1 Month

1,352.14

increased by 124.07

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 05:56 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vestum Ab (Publ) ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 19, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 900 trading days (~3.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4888
4.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2297
6.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7695
22.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-3.6964
-1.62
γ24.8295
1.10
γ36.2724
0.92
γ4-13.8225
-1.74*
γ57.4937
1.72*
γ6-2.4849
-1.26
γ72.1970
1.21
γ8-0.1916
-0.14
γ9-0.7966
-1.19
γ10-0.2899
-0.51

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

900 days