Vestum Ab (Publ) Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
1,231.36
increased by 105.04
1 Week
1,354.31
increased by 227.99
1 Month
1,068.17
decreased by 58.15
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0954 | 0.72 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7223 | 3.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3646 | 0.39 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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