V-Lab
Velocity Financial Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026
1 Day
4,216.52
decreased by 287.38
1 Week
4,931.59
increased by 427.69
1 Month
4,592.86
increased by 88.96
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 20, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 57 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3274 | 6.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.1504 | 6.39*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8376 | 35.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2243 | -4.76*** |
0.988
Persistence57d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3274 | 6.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1504 | 6.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8376 | 35.38*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.2243 | -4.76*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
57 days
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