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Velocity Financial Inc Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 23rd, 2026

1 Day

5,251.32

decreased by 384.47

1 Week

5,987.20

increased by 351.41

1 Month

5,385.59

decreased by 250.20

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 22, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Velocity Financial Inc ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 20, 2020 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
0.08
αARCH0.0994
4.01***
βGARCH0.8801
52.26***
γleverage0.0410
0.96

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
0.08
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0994
4.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8801
52.26***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0410
0.96

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days