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V-Lab

Versabank Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026

1 Day

3,929.22

increased by 419.39

1 Week

3,970.98

increased by 461.15

1 Month

5,131.70

increased by 1,621.87

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Versabank ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 23, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.5266
5.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1056
3.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6162
4.17***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-3.0056
-1.24
γ21.7720
0.47
γ31.5648
0.55
γ4-2.3861
-0.80
γ55.2553
1.30
γ6-8.3027
-1.32
γ711.1065
1.63
γ8-13.4938
-2.54**

Persistence:

0.722

Half-life:

2 days