V-Lab
Versabank Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 12th, 2026
1 Day
3,929.22
increased by 419.39
1 Week
3,970.98
increased by 461.15
1 Month
5,131.70
increased by 1,621.87
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 at 10:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 23, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5266 | 5.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 3.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6162 | 4.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -3.0056 | -1.24 |
| γ2 | 1.7720 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | 1.5648 | 0.55 |
| γ4 | -2.3861 | -0.80 |
| γ5 | 5.2553 | 1.30 |
| γ6 | -8.3027 | -1.32 |
| γ7 | 11.1065 | 1.63 |
| γ8 | -13.4938 | -2.54** |
Persistence:
0.722
Half-life:
2 days
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